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Today I initiated a short in Gold via the inverse ETF DGZ.  Based on current market conditions, I consider this a speculative trade and am only holding it in my personal account…not for any clients.

There are many reasons I believe Gold is currently overbought, including the pattern illustrated in the below chart.  Notice how a spike in the Volume (moving average) of the ETF GLD often corresponds to a change in the direction of the Price.

Recently we’re seen a huge spike in the Volume of GLD.  I don’t believe this is a “breakout” but rather an example of the Retail “dumb money” jumping into a crowded trade.

Twenty-five trading sessions ago, GLD moved above its 50dma.  Since then, it’s up over 9%.  I believe the trade is currently overbought and thus I’m betting it will fade.  Please note, this is speculative and simply my personal opinion.

As always, invest with caution.

GLD vs Volume 160210


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