Major turmoil in the markets today. Have you heard? There’s a trade war going on.
As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’m waiting for the S&P 500 to hit its 200dma before I buy this dip. Hasn’t happened yet, but with the seasonal volatility of August-October, I might just get my chance.
Today’s news that drove the S&P 500 down 2.59%:
- China announced additional tariffs on US products
- Trump “orders” companies to leave China
- FED gives milquetoast comment about supporting economy
How low will the S&P 500 drop? I have no idea, but it’s likely to test the June or December lows.
- 6/3/2019: 2744
- 12/24/2018: 2351
That’s a wide range. For now, I think 2700-2799 is more probable. Call it an even 2750. That puts the peak-to-trough decline at ~10% and within 1% (below) of its 200dma.
NOTE: Emerging Markets are almost at their December lows…yet they did relatively well today, only down 1.49%.
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