The New Year Market rally continues to fade, with February’s closing price on par with mid-December 2022. Technical support for the S&P 500 at its 50 day moving average (dma) is also failing; if the 200dma can’t hold, then I believe there’s a high probability that the October 2022 lows will be tested.
A decline back to last year’s “W” pattern low would be very unusual. A “triple dip” of sorts, that’s not typical of a customary recovery. If that were to happen, then a Post World War II economy could be analogous to our Post Pandemic circumstances.
The below chart is a closer look at data previously discussed. Note that the Post WWII turbulence (plagued by inflation, supply chain issues, job-skill mismatches, high debt, and geopolitical instability…sound familiar?) didn’t reach a final trough until the summer of 1949 (~3.5 years). Swing trading the switchbacks was a much more profitable strategy than buy & hold.
Another noteworthy point is that once the bottom was established, the Market took off. In fact, other than a slight correction in 1953 (end of Korean War), the Market rocketed higher for a decade, up some 325% from the June 1949 low.
Similar things might be in our future…stay tuned.
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