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S&P500 within 1% of all time high…BUT

Despite turbulent market conditions, the S&P500 has been clawing its way up and is within striking range of a new all-time high.  The broad index has fared much better than the NASDAQ or Russell 2000.  Problem is these latter indexes are where the growth and leadership originate, as opposed to the S&P500 and DOW which offer safe havens and defensive positions.

It’s probable that a bull market rally will be led with an advance in the tech heavy NASDAQ or small cap Russell 2000, not the stogy blue chip DOW.  Likewise, a downturn will originate with these momentum indexes and if there is truly a correction the safe havens will crumble too.

As previously noted, NASDAQ trading volume continues to be lighter on Up days, an ominous tell.

Concerns abound- Russia/Ukraine conflict, Fed tapering, weak Q1 earnings, deflation in Europe, soft growth in China…a 5 year bull market getting long in the tooth.

A prudent investor patiently waits and would rather miss a run up than suffer through a drawdown.