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September Stock Market Selloff? 220903

You’ve probably already seen the headlines: September is the worst month of the year for stocks.

True, but how significant? Not much.

The below chart illustrates that over the past six years, two years were down (~-3.5%) and the other four years where either flat or up.  There is a seasonal pattern that implies underperformance for the month of September, but on average, it’s inconsequential.  Since 1950, the average performance for the month of September was 0.54%. 

What will happen this time?  I have no idea, but my cynicism leads me to speculate that the stock market will improve ahead of the midterm elections.

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