Are you waiting for oil to bounce back to its peak of 2008? You could be waiting a long time.
In the below chart, I juxtaposed the price of oil from May 2004-Jan 2016 (in black, top section of chart) above the price of oil from Jan 1977-May 2004 (in gray, bottom section of chart).
Note that in the previous cycle, it took 23 years for oil to exceed its nominal peak.
Markets move in cycles and sometimes they are very LONG cycles. Oil, Gold, and other commodities may flounder for years (or decades).
I’m betting that commodities regress to their mean price of pre-2005.
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