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Does this look like a Stock Market Rally? 230224

Today the S&P 500 found support at its 200 day moving average but it’s been down 5 of the past 6 sessions and I think the 2023 Relief Rally is fading.  The S&P 500 is below several significant technical levels that I track:

  • Short term expediential moving average
  • 50 day moving average
  • 2 standard deviation band
  • MACD
  • 4000 psychological level

More significantly, over the past year, the S&P 500 has failed (MULTIPLE TIMES) to breakout in a typical “V” or “W” pattern recovery.

I’ve been increasingly concerned about Market conditions since Oct 2022.  Since then, leading economic indicators have continued to degrade.  Notable “dark cloud” conditions on the horizon include:

  • Increasing restrictive interest rates
  • Increasing wage inflation
  • Declining corporate profits
  • Geopolitical risk, that’s arguably the highest in 80 years

I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know where the global economy is headed.  But I am inquisitive, so I pose the below chart, with a simple question:

Does this look like a Stock Market Rally?

Be patient and of good cheer.  I believe there’s a high likelihood that the future will provide a wonderful buying opportunity.

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