The Markets are euphoric about a likely peak in interest rates. My contrarian nature is focused on another likely peak- Investor Exuberance.
I calculate investor exuberance from both sentiment and volatility indicators. The below chart compares the S&P 500 with my gauge of exuberance. While both the Market and exuberance can go higher, near term I don’t see much of a driver.
- Inflation has moderated but it’s still higher than desired.
- Rates are likely peaking but the Fed is still contracting the money supply.
- Corporate profits haven’t bottomed yet and there isn’t any “real” inflation adjusted revenue growth.
- Global economy has stalled- China, Germany & Japan all experiencing poor exports.
So while the more optimistic are celebrating 4.8% inflation, I remain cautiously contrarian.
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