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BOEING too big to fail…it will fly again

Boeing has been in a downward trend for a year due to the grounding of the 737 Max.  What has impressed me about the resilience of the stock price, is the peak-to-trough decline has thus far only been about 25%.  Last year, several times I successfully traded Options against it and outright bought the stock in November 2019.  The price hasn’t yet recovered but long term I think Boeing in an excellent opportunity.

In my estimation, Boeing is just too big to fail. 

  • US largest manufacturer
  • US largest exporter
  • Primary beneficiary of the US Import-Export Bank
  • Tariffs on Airbus have just been raised to 15%
  • Pending ban on sales of GE aircraft engines for China’s new passenger jet

Dominant US corporations rarely fail.  As an example, General Motors has a long history of favorable treatment, its routs last about a year or so.  Buying below a long term moving average almost always pays off.  I think this will also be the case with Boeing. 

But don’t bet the ranch on it.   A portfolio should be designed with diversification and a long term horizon.