Today’s Russia Ukraine Invasion “buy the rumor, sell the news” relief rally doesn’t surprise me for several reasons, the largest factor being that war is very profitable.
Here’s another cynical fact, Russia has a tendency to “annex” its neighbors: Crimea 2014, Georgia 2008 and I’m even old enough to personally remember Czechoslovakia 1968.
I don’t know how military tensions with Russia will pan out, but here’s what I do know:
- OMICRON was a dud, January’s receipts at restaurants and bars fell only 0.9%
- Global pent up demand for Travel, Entertainment & In Person Services is HUGE
- ReOpening & Mid Cap stocks have been outperforming for the past month
- Cyclicals like Energy, Banks, Industrials & Materials are outpacing inflation
- The Small Cap stock selloff reached bearish levels and might have bottomed
My portfolio is a diversified mix of the above, so I remain optimistic.
As a side note, if you think I’m too cynical for believing that war is a profitable enterprise, forgive me but that’s the lesson I learned while serving in the military. As a former Marine, every November, I celebrate the Marine Corps Birthday (Nov 10) and Veteran’s Day (Nov 11) by listening to War is a Racket, written by USMC Maj Gen Smedley Butler. You can listen here:
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