Continuing the theme of “it’s different this time” and assuming it’s not- then perhaps the window for a recession is closing, and if it doesn’t occur quickly, it will be postponed until December 2024 (following the presidential election).
Based on the below chart, I’m making the following tinfoil hat observations and assumptions. [The chart is extremely cluttered, but not nearly as much as my mind.]
Observations:
- Recessions tend to be preceded by an abrupt increase in the Fed Funds Rate.
- Over the past 72 years, 18 election cycles, and 11 recessions-
- 2a) When a recession occurs during a presidential election year, the incumbent party loses. (100% of the time.)
- 2b) 3 of the 4 times a recession occurred during an election year, it was a Republican incumbent.
Assumptions:
- The Federal Reserve causes most recessions (to combat inflation).
- The Federal Reserve favors Democrat administrations.
- President Biden understands assumptions 1 & 2. [his Treasury Secretary (Yellen) was the former Fed Chair; his recently appointed National Economic Council President (Brainard) was the former Fed Vice Chair.]
- 3a) Recession must be scheduled soon, so that the economy can recover ahead of the November 2024 election.
- 3b) Recession must be postponed until after the November 2024 election.
- 3c) BONUS ASSUMPTION- if Team Biden gets reelected, Lael Brainard will be appointed Fed Chair in May 2026.
Conspiratorial? No…just pragmatic. Tune into the next episode of the Wealthsteading Podcast for more cynical economic analysis.
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